RateSignal — AI Mortgage Rate Tracker & Forecast
RateSignal (ratesignal.co) is a free, AI-powered mortgage rate tracking platform. We pull daily 10-Year U.S. Treasury yield data and use ensemble machine learning models to estimate today's 30-year fixed, 15-year fixed, and 5/1 ARM mortgage rates — plus generate 90-day forecasts.
What You'll Find on RateSignal
- Today's Mortgage Rates — Daily estimates for 30-year, 15-year, and ARM rates derived from Treasury yield data
- AI-Powered Forecasts — 90-day rate predictions using regime-switching ensemble models with momentum, mean-reversion, and lender-overshoot sub-models
- Treasury Yield Tracking — Live 10-year Treasury yield with historical trends and yield curve analysis
- Daily Market Briefs — AI-generated daily summaries of rate movements and market context
- Mortgage News — Curated analysis of rate trends, Fed policy, and housing market developments
- Educational Guides — Plain-English explanations of what drives mortgage rates and how to read Treasury data
Our Methodology
RateSignal uses a regime-switching ensemble architecture combining fast EMAs (2/3/5-day), mean-reversion modeling, lender-overshoot expansion, and AI reasoning. The model detects "breakout" vs "normal" market conditions and adjusts weights dynamically. A 3-day rolling error feedback loop applies hard bias corrections to prevent systematic under- or over-prediction.
Data sourced from the U.S. Department of the Treasury. Rates are estimates, not quotes. Always consult a licensed mortgage professional.